A Bayesian approach for timing the neolithization in mediterranean iberia

In this paper, we compile recent¹⁴C dates related to the Neolithic transition in Mediterranean Iberia and present a Bayesian chronological approach for testing the dual model, a mixed model proposed to explain the spread of farming and husbandry processes in eastern Iberia. The dual model postulates the coexistence of agricultural pioneers and indigenous Mesolithic foraging groups in the Middle Holocene. We test this general model with more regional models of four geographical areas (Northeast, Upper, and Middle Ebro Valley, and Eastern and South/Southeastern regions) and present a filtered summed probability of all¹⁴C dates known in the region in order to compare socioecological dynamics over a long period. Finally, we discuss the results and analyze how certain specific characteristics of sites and their chronologies can serve for timing the Neolithic expansion in Mediterranean Iberia.