Changes in potential wildland fire suppression costs due to restoration treatments in Northern Arizona Ponderosa pine forests

Wildfire suppression costs have been increasing since the early 1970's. With growing concern over wildfire suppression costs, our analysis addresses restoration treatment effectiveness in reducing wildfire suppression costs. We examine past fires across the Northern Arizona landscape to determine fire behavior characteristics that are significant in predicting wildfire suppression costs and capable of being modeled in fire simulations prior to wildfire events. We find burn severity metrics to be significant in predicting wildfire suppression costs. Three proposed treatment alternatives for the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4-FRI) are analyzed to determine treatment effectiveness and policy implications in reducing burn severity metrics and wildfire suppression costs. The more aggressive treatments are more effective in reducing wildfire suppression costs except in the case of sever wind and weather events.