TY - JOUR
T1 - Changes in South American hydroclimate under projected Amazonian deforestation
AU - Eiras-Barca, Jorge
AU - Dominguez, Francina
AU - Yang, Zhao
AU - Chug, Divyansh
AU - Nieto, Raquel
AU - Gimeno, Luis
AU - Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo
N1 - Funding Information: E.B. was supported by the program ED4181B 2018/069 from the Spanish regional government Xunta de Galicia and the Fulbright Commission (U.S. Department of State). F.D. was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) CAREER Award AGS 1454089. D.C. has been funded by the Future Investigators in the NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST) 2019 Award. Computing time was provided by the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) Blue Waters. E.B. is particularly thankful to Sujan Pal, Carolina Bieri, Sean Matus, and Iago Algarra for their valuable advice. R.N., L.G., and J.E.B. acknowledge the LAGRIMA Project (RTI2018-095772-B-I00) funded by Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, Spain; and the support from the Xunta de Galicia under the Project ED431C 2017/64-GRC “Programa de Consolidación e Estructuración de Unidades de Investigación Competitivas” (Grupos de Referen-cia Competitiva). We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. Funding Information: E.B. was supported by the program ED4181B 2018/069 from the Spanish regional government Xunta de Galicia and the Fulbright Commission (U.S. Department of State). F.D. was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) CAREER Award AGS 1454089. D.C. has been funded by the Future Investigators in the NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST) 2019 Award. Computing time was provided by the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) Blue Waters. E.B. is particularly thankful to Sujan Pal, Carolina Bieri, Sean Matus, and Iago Algarra for their valuable advice. R.N., L.G., and J.E.B. acknowledge the LAGRIMA Project (RTI2018-095772-B-I00) funded by Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci?n y Universidades, Spain; and the support from the Xunta de Galicia under the Project ED431C 2017/64-GRC ?Programa de Consolidaci?n e Estructuraci?n de Unidades de Investigaci?n Competitivas? (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva). We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 New York Academy of Sciences.
PY - 2020/1/1
Y1 - 2020/1/1
N2 - Continued deforestation in the Amazon forest can alter the subsurface/surface and atmospheric branches of the hydrologic cycle. The sign and magnitude of these changes depend on the complex interactions between the water, energy, and momentum budgets. To understand these changes, we use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model with improved representation of groundwater dynamics and the added feature of Amazonian moisture tracers. The control simulation uses moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) based observations of land use, and the deforestation simulations use a “business-as-usual” scenario projected for 2040–2050. Our results show that deforestation leads to changes that are seasonally very different. During the dry season, deforestation results in increased albedo and less available net radiation. This change, together with reduced leaf area, results in decreased evapotranspiration (ET), less atmospheric moisture of Amazonian origin, and an increase in temperature. However, we find no changes in precipitation over the basin. Conversely, during the wet season, surface winds increase significantly due to decreased surface roughness. Vapor transport increases throughout the deforested region and leads to an increase in easterly moisture export, and significant decrease in precipitation within the deforested regions of Eastern Amazon. Contrary to expectations, the moisture tracers in WRF show no evidence that precipitation decreases are due to recycling or changes in stability.
AB - Continued deforestation in the Amazon forest can alter the subsurface/surface and atmospheric branches of the hydrologic cycle. The sign and magnitude of these changes depend on the complex interactions between the water, energy, and momentum budgets. To understand these changes, we use the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model with improved representation of groundwater dynamics and the added feature of Amazonian moisture tracers. The control simulation uses moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) based observations of land use, and the deforestation simulations use a “business-as-usual” scenario projected for 2040–2050. Our results show that deforestation leads to changes that are seasonally very different. During the dry season, deforestation results in increased albedo and less available net radiation. This change, together with reduced leaf area, results in decreased evapotranspiration (ET), less atmospheric moisture of Amazonian origin, and an increase in temperature. However, we find no changes in precipitation over the basin. Conversely, during the wet season, surface winds increase significantly due to decreased surface roughness. Vapor transport increases throughout the deforested region and leads to an increase in easterly moisture export, and significant decrease in precipitation within the deforested regions of Eastern Amazon. Contrary to expectations, the moisture tracers in WRF show no evidence that precipitation decreases are due to recycling or changes in stability.
KW - Amazon basin
KW - business-as-usual scenario
KW - changes
KW - deforestation
KW - hydroclimate
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U2 - 10.1111/nyas.14364
DO - 10.1111/nyas.14364
M3 - Article
C2 - 32441831
SN - 0077-8923
VL - 1472
SP - 104
EP - 122
JO - Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
JF - Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
IS - 1
ER -