Expected wildfire suppression costs for proposed 4fri treatment areas

The Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI) has proposed restoration treatments totaling 2.4 million acres across the ponderosa pine landscape of Arizona with the goal of mitigating the potential for severe, stand-replacing fires. Our study compares current wildfire behavior conditions across the landscape to the predicted wildfire behavior conditions associated with the proposed treatments in an effort to determine the monetary changes between expected wildfire suppression costs under current conditions and treated forests. Previous studies that have shown a strong correlation have focused on the relationship between fire size and suppression costs. Because the relationship between fire characteristics and suppression costs has not been studied extensively before, our analysis focuses solely on changes in fire behavior characteristics associated with fire severity that can be affected through treatments to predict suppression costs. Using the proposed treatment area on the Kaibab National Forest as a case study, we estimated total suppression costs range between $1,439,091 and $2,454,471 (2002 dollars) for areas classified with a risk of severe wildfire. Our ongoing research models proposed treatment areas across the 4FRI landscape in relation to their potential fire behavior. Once this modeling is completed, we will be able to compare the reduction in fire severity associated with treatments against the fire severity of the current conditions.