@article{3b97ec99d782462c9169dc29f9c71dc3,
title = "Extreme precipitation spatial analog: In search of an alternative approach for future extreme precipitation in urban hydrological studies",
abstract = "In this paper, extreme precipitation spatial analog is examined as an alternative method to adapt extreme precipitation projections for use in urban hydrological studies. The idea for this method is that real climate records from some cities can serve as {"}analogs{"} that behave like potential future precipitation for other locations at small spatio-temporal scales. Extreme precipitation frequency quantiles of a 3.16 km2 catchment in the Chicago area, computed using simulations from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with L-moment method, were compared to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 (NA14) quantiles at other cities. Variances in raw NARCCAP historical quantiles from different combinations of RCMs, General Circulation Models (GCMs), and remapping methods are much larger than those in NA14. The performance for NARCCAP quantiles tend to depend more on the RCMs than the GCMs, especially at durations less than 24-h. The uncertainties in bias-corrected future quantiles of NARCCAP are still large compared to those of NA14, and increase with rainfall duration. Results show that future 3-h and 30-day rainfall in Chicago will be similar to historical rainfall from Memphis, TN and Springfield, IL, respectively. This indicates that the spatial analog is potentially useful, but highlights the fact that the analogs may depend on the duration of the rainfall of interest.",
keywords = "Extreme precipitation, Future precipitation at urban scale, RCM uncertainty, Spatial analog",
author = "Wang, {Ariel Kexuan} and Francina Dominguez and Schmidt, {Arthur Robert}",
note = "Funding Information: Funding: This research was funded by National Science Foundation (NSF) (award number 1331807) and United States Army Corps of Engineers(USACE)/United States Geological Survey (USGS) (award number G17AP0030). Funding Information: We wish to thank the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) for providing the data used in this paper. NARCCAP is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development (EPA). We also wish to thank NOAA/National Weather Service for providing data in NOAA Atlas 14 used in this paper. In addition, we would like to thank Joshua Cantone, Optimatics Vice President, for his hydrological studies on CDS-51 catchment, and Momcilo Markus, James Randal Angel, from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, as well as Shu Wu, from the University ofWisconsin-Madison, for help in their field of expertise in various stages of this research. This research was funded by National Science Foundation (NSF) (award number 1331807) and United States Army Corps of Engineers(USACE)/United States Geological Survey (USGS) (award number G17AP0030). Funding Information: Acknowledgments: We wish to thank the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) for providing the data used in this paper. NARCCAP is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development (EPA). We also wish to thank NOAA/National Weather Service for providing data in NOAA Atlas 14 used in this paper. In addition, we would like to thank Joshua Cantone, Optimatics Vice President, for his hydrological studies on CDS-51 catchment, and Momcilo Markus, James Randal Angel, from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, as well as Shu Wu, from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, for help in their field of expertise in various stages of this research. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 by the authors.",
year = "2019",
month = may,
day = "1",
doi = "10.3390/w11051032",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "11",
journal = "Water (Switzerland)",
issn = "2073-4441",
publisher = "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)",
number = "5",
}