Impacts of a Warming and Drying Climate on Agriculture and Food Production

Texas agriculture plays an important role in the state's economy. Texas is a leading producer of cattle, poultry, important crops such as cotton, corn, sorghum, wheat, rice, and a variety of fruits and vegetables. Texan farmers sold $32.2 billion worth of agricultural products in 2022 and the food and fiber systems in the state contributed 9.1% of the state's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021. Texas crop producers face challenges from declining water availability, recurring droughts and occasional floods, and projected warmer and drier climate and changes in rainfall patterns in the future. Crops respond differently to changes in climate because of their varying physiological characteristics. An understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop production is therefore essential for long-term planning and decision-making to ensure sustainable and resilient food and fiber production systems. This chapter discusses climate change impacts on agricultural and food production in Texas in four major sections that focus on: (1) an overview of agricultural sector in Texas and crop-wise contributions to the state economy; (2) a discussion on the effects of climate variables including air temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide, and rainfall on the growth and development of C3 and C4 crops; (3) a review of studies that assessed climate change impacts on production of major field and forage crops, and fruits and trees in Texas; and (4) a description of potential climate change adaptation strategies including management-based adaptions, genotype-based adaptations, and potential alternative crops and cropping systems.