Obstructive sleep apnea predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease–related mortality in the Sleep Heart Health Study: a machine learning approach

Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is considered to be an important risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to develop and evaluate a machine learning approach with a set of features for assessing the 10-year CVD mortality risk of the OSA population. Methods: This study included 2,464 patients with OSA who met study inclusion criteria and were selected from the Sleep Heart Health Study. We evaluated the importance of potential features by mutual information. The top 9 features were selected to develop a random forest model. Results: We evaluated the model performance on a test set (n = 493) using the area under the receiver operating curve with 95% confidence interval and confusion matrix. A random forest model awarded the highest area under the receiver operating curve of 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.78–0.89). The specificity and sensitivity were 73.94% and 81.82%, respectively. Sixty-three years old was a threshold for increased risk of 10-year CVD mortality. Persons with severe OSA had higher risk than those with mild OSA. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that a random forest model can provide a quick assessment of the risk of 10-year CVD mortality. Our model may be more informative for patients with OSA in determining their future CVD mortality risk.