Pandemic influenza simulation with public avoidance behavior

This chapter explores how classical mathematical models for epidemic simulation can be modified to properly incorporate relevant social and behavioral dimensions. Using the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Arizona as the research context, we modified a classical “Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed” (SEIR) model and simulated it as a system dynamics model. The dynamics of influenza-related morbidity is examined, considering emergency risk communication and public avoidance behavior during the outbreak. Sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the impact of variability in uncertain parameters on epidemic dynamics in the community. We end this chapter with a discussion of the use of simulation –models to inform efforts to prepare communities for pandemic influenza outbreaks.