The adaptive cycles of woodlands, croplands, rangelands, and fisheries: developing a procedure to test the theory

The theory of adaptive cycles, as developed almost 40 years ago by Holling (1986), has great potential as a tool to understand, anticipate, and alter the trajectories of change in natural resource systems. However, its incorporation in natural resource policy and management remains limited. A total of 112 studies are reviewed to assess how the theory of adaptive cycles has been applied to understand the behavior of natural resource systems (i.e., woodlands, croplands, rangelands, and fisheries) and how its application can be improved to enhance the potential of the theory to inform natural resource management. The review reveals that the theory has largely been applied in haphazard ways because there is no procedure in place to prevent the manipulation of empirical data to fit the path prescribed by the theory. The theory of adaptive cycles is primarily approached as a conceptual framework instead of as a set of testable and falsifiable hypotheses. Ill-fitting management recommendations can ensue when the theory is not tested, which demonstrates the pressing need for the development of a standardized procedure that future studies can follow. A 7-step procedure is developed to enhance the transparency and reliability of the application of the theory of adaptive cycles and to contribute to the realization of its potential to inform natural resource management.