The Impacts of Interannual Climate Variability on the Declining Trend in Terrestrial Water Storage over the Tigris–Euphrates River Basin

The Tigris–Euphrates dryland river basin has experienced a declining trend in terrestrial water storage (TWS) from April 2002 to June 2017. Using satellite observations and a process-based land surface model, we find that climate variations and direct human interventions explain ;61% (20.57 mm month²¹) and ;39% (20.36 mm month²¹) of the negative trend, respectively. We further disaggregate the effects of climate variations and find that interannual climate variability contributes substantially (20.27 mm month²¹) to the negative TWS trend, slightly greater than the decadal climate change (20.25 mm month²¹). Interannual climate variability affects TWS mainly through the nonlinear relationship between monthly TWS dynamics and aridity. Slow recovery of TWS during short wetting periods does not compensate for rapid depletion of TWS through transpiration during prolonged drying periods. Despite enhanced water stress, the dryland ecosystems show slightly enhanced resilience to water stress through greater partitioning of evapotranspiration into transpiration and weak surface “greening” effects. However, the dryland ecosystems are vulnerable to drought impacts. The basin shows straining ecosystem functioning after experiencing a severe drought event. In addition, after the onset of the drought, the dryland ecosystem becomes more sensitive to variations in climate conditions.