Unveiling uncertainties to enhance sustainability transformations in infrastructure decision-making

Large-scale infrastructure plays instrumental roles in defining trajectories of land use, influencing the distribution of risk, and enabling or eroding ecological and social wellbeing. While considerable attention has been paid to the outcomes and implications of such infrastructure investments, less analytical attention has been given to the decision processes of infrastructure investment intended to enhance sustainability transformations. Decision-making over infrastructure is characterized by uncertainty — in which the system models and probability functions are unknown, and the desired outcomes are highly controversial. Approaches are needed to address issues of political contention and power asymmetries, disparate values, justice and equity in large-scale infrastructure decision-making. All these elements augment uncertainty and challenge decision processes, while underscoring the role of knowledge co-production. We draw from empirical cases in Mexico and Vietnam to highlight promising directions and an emergent research agenda on addressing these challenges in infrastructural decision processes.